Scenario based planning involves imagining different future business environments for your industry. Each scenario generates must be internally consistent, credible and different to the others.
It was made popular by Shell, where it is supposed to have contributed to Shell’s rapid response to the 1970’s oil crises.
The “Most Likely” scenario can be used as the base business environment that your strategy is designed for. The different scenarios can be used as a sense-check on the strategy – will it cause disaster if the world turns out differently? – and also to identify what leading indicators/ trigger events to monitor to identify when you are veering into a different world to the “Most Likely” one.
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